A live Monte-Carlo of a disciplined martingale on a memoryless synthetic market.
Move any control and watch the whole distribution of outcomes. The reveal: your settings change the
shape of the picture — never the sign of its center.
Your rules
$1.00
95%
50.0%
Rise/Fall is a coin: 50%. The edge lives in the payout, not the odds.
6 steps
Stopping earlier (e.g. after 2 losses) = a shallower depth. Try it.
$22
40
More play = the tail catches up with everyone.
60s
End up
—
of players
Median result
—
the typical player
Mean / player
—
the house's cut
EV / trade
—
every single bet
Every possible outcome
▮ up ▮ down │ mean
A sample "market"
memorylessrandom walk
Looks like trends, support, resistance — all real in hindsight, zero predictive power forward. The highlighted "trend" told you nothing about the next tick.
How this works. Each session bets your base stake; after a loss it martingales to recover, up to your depth; a full-depth losing streak is a wipe. A session ends at your profit target or on a wipe. We simulate 12,000 players live. The market is drawn as a true random walk — the honest model of a Deriv Volatility/Jump/Step synthetic, which our own research (1,000+ strategies, out-of-sample + permutation-null) found to be memoryless and unbeatable. Real-underlying baskets are the one documented exception, and a different instrument.
This is an educational simulator of published odds. It is not a trading product, not advice, and it promises nothing. The point is the opposite of a promise: to show you the true shape of the odds so you decide with your eyes open.